elections Archives

What’s next

“It’s like your manifesto promises,” Bernard Woolley (Derek Fowldes) tells eponymous minister Jim Hacker (Paul Eddington) in Antony Jay‘s and Jonathan Lynn’s Yes, Minister. “People *understand*.” In other words, people know your election promises aren’t real.

The current US president-elect is impulsive and chaotic, and there will be resistance. So it’s reasonable to assume that at least some of his pre-election rhetoric will remain words and not deeds. There is, however, no telling which parts. And: the chaos is the point.

At Ars Technica, Ashley Belanger considers the likely impact of the threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 20% from everywhere else: laptops could double, games consoles go up 40%, and smartphones rise 26%. Friends want to stockpile coffee, tea, and chocolate.

Also at Ars Technica, Benj Edwards predicts that the new administration will quickly reverse Joe Biden’s executive order regulating AI development.

At his BIG Substack, Matt Stoller predicts a wave of mergers following three years of restrictions. At TechDirt, Karl Bode agrees, with special emphasis on media companies and an order of enshittification on the side. At Hollywood Reporter, similarly, Alex Weprin reports that large broadcast station owners are eagerly eying up local stations, and David Zaslav, CEO of merger monster Warner Brothers Discovery, tells Georg Szalai that more consolidation would provide “real positive impact”. (As if.)

Many predict that current Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr will be promoted to FCC chair. Carr set out his agenda in his chapter of Project 2025: as the Benton Institute for Broadband and Society reports. His policies, Jon Brodkin writes at Ars Technica, include reforming Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and dropping consumer protection initiatives. John Hendel warned in October at Politico that the new FCC chair could also channel millions of dollars to Elon Musk for his Starlink satellite Internet service, a possibility the FCC turned down in 2023.

Also on Carr’s list is punishing critical news organizations. Donald Trump’s lawyers began before the election with a series of complaints, as Lachlan Cartwright writes at Columbia Journalism Review. The targets: CBS News for 60 Minutes, the New York Times, Penguin Random House, Saturday Night Live, the Washington Post, and the Daily Beast.

Those of us outside the US will be relying on the EU to stand up to parts of this through the AI Act, Digital Markets Act, Digital Services Act, and GDPR. Enforcement will be crucial. The US administration may resist this procedure. The UK will have to pick a side.

***

It’s now two years since Elon Musk was forced to honor his whim of buying Twitter, and much of what he and others said would happen…hasn’t. Many predicted system collapse or a major hack. Instead, despite mass departures for sites other, the hollowed-out site has survived technically while degrading in every other way that matters.

Other than rebranding to “X”, Musk has failed to deliver many of the things he was eagerly talking about when he took over. A helpful site chronicles these: a payments system, a content moderation council, a billion more users. X was going to be the “everything app”. Nope.

This week, the aftermath of the US election and new terms of service making user data fodder for AI training have sparked a new flood of departures. This time round there’s consensus: they’re going to Bluesky.

It’s less clear what’s happening with the advertisers who supply the platform’s revenues, which the now-private company no longer has to disclose. Since Musk’s takeover, reports have consistently said advertisers are leaving. Now, the Financial Times reports (unpaywalled, Ars Technica) they are plotting their return, seeking to curry favor given Musk’s influence within the new US administration – and perhaps escaping the lawsuit he filed against them in August. Even so, it will take a lot to rebuild. The platform’s valuation is currently estimated at $10 billion, down from the $44 billion Musk paid.

This slash-and-burn approach is the one Musk wants to take to Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, as in Dogecoin; groan). Musk’s list of desired qualities for DOGE volunteers – no pay, long hours, “super” high IQ – reminds of Dominic Cummings in January 2020, when he was Boris Johnson’s most-favored adviser and sought super-talented weirdos to remake the UK government. Cummings was gone by November.

***

It says something about the madness of the week that the sanest development appears to be that The Onion has bought Infowars, the conspiracy theory media operation Alex Jones used to promote, alongside vitamins, supplements, and many other conspiracy theories, the utterly false claim that the Sandy Hook school shootings were a hoax. The sale was part of a bankruptcy auction held to raise funds Jones owes to the families of the slaughtered Sandy Hook children after losing to them in court in a $1.4 billion defamation case. Per the New York Times, the purchase was sanctioned by the Sandy Hook families. The Onion will relaunch the site in its own style with funding from Everytown for Gun Safety. There may not be a god, but there is an onion.

Illustrations: The front page of The Onion, showing the news about its InfoWars purchase.

Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. She is a contributing editor for the Plutopia News Network podcast. Follow on Mastodon.

Choice

The first year it occurred to me that a key consideration in voting for the US president was the future composition of the Supreme Court was 1980: Reagan versus Carter. Reagan appointed the first female justice, Sandra Day O’Connor – and then gave us Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy. Only O’Connor was appointed during Reagan’s first term, the one that woulda, shoulda, coulda been Carter’s second.

Watching American TV shows and movies from the 1980s and 1990s is increasingly sad. In some – notably Murphy Brown – a pregnant female character wrestles with deciding what to do. Even when not pregnant, those characters live inside the confidence of knowing they have choice.

At the time, Murphy (Candice Bergen) was pilloried for choosing single motherhood. (“Does [Dan Quayle] know she’s fictional?” a different sitcom asked, after the then-vice president critized her “lifestyle”.) Had Murphy opted instead for an abortion, I imagine she’d have been just as vilified rather than seen as acting “responsibly”. In US TV history, it may only be on Maude in 1972 that an American lead character, Maude (Bea Arthur), is shown actually going through with an abortion. Even in 2015 in an edgy comedy like You’re the Worst, that choice is given to the sidekick. It’s now impossible to watch any of those scenes without feeling the loss of agency.

In the news, pro-choice activists warned that overturning Roe v. Wade would bring deaths, and so it has, but not in the same way as they did in the illegal-abortion 1950s, when termination could be dangerous. Instead, women are dying because their health needs fall in the middle of a spectrum that has purely elective abortion at one end and purely involuntary miscarriage at the other. These are not distinguishable *physically*, but can be made into evil versus blameless morality tales (though watch that miscarrying mother, maybe she did something).

Even those who still have a choice may struggle to access it. Only one doctor performs abortions in Mississippi ; he also works in Alabama and Tennessee.

So this time women are dying or suffering from lack of care when doctors can’t be sure what they are allowed do under laws that are written by people with shockingly limited medical knowledge.

Such was the case of Amber Thurman, a 28-year-old Georgian medical assistant who died of septic shock after fetal tissue was incompletely expelled after a medication abortion, which she’d had to travel hundreds of miles to North Carolina to get. It’s a very rare complication, but her life could probably have been saved by prompt action – but the hospital had no policy in place for septic abortions under Georgia’s then-new law. There have been many more awful stories since – many not deaths but fraught survivals of avoidable complications.

If anti-abortion activists are serious about their desire to save the life of every unborn child, there are real and constructive things they can do. They could start by requiring hospitals to provide obstetrics units and states to imrpove provision for women’s health. According to March of Dimes, 5.5 million American women in are caught in the one-third of US counties it calls “maternity deserts”. Most affected are those in the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. In Texas, which banned abortion after six weeks in 2021 and now prohibits it except to save the mother’s life, maternal mortality rose 56% between 2019 and 2022. Half of Texas counties, Stephanie Taladrid reported at The New Yorker in January, have no specialists in women’s health.

“Pro-life” could also mean pushing to support families. American parents have less access to parental leave than their counterparts in other developed countries. Or they could fight to redress other problems, like the high rate of Black maternal mortality.

Instead, the most likely response to the news that abortion rates have actually gone up in the US since the Dobbs decision is efforts to increase surveillance, criminalization, and restriction. In 2022, I imagined how this might play out in a cashless society, where linked systems could prevent a pregnant woman from paying for anything that might help her obtain an abortion: travel, drugs, even unhealthy foods,

This week, at The Intercept, Debbie Nathan reports on a case in which a police sniffer dog flagged an envelope that, opened under warrant, proved to contain abortion pills. It’s not clear, she writes, whether the sniffer dogs actually detect misopristol and mifepristone, or traces of contraband drugs, or just responding to an already-suspicious handler’s subtle cues, like Clever Hans. Using the US Postal Service’s database of images of envelopes, inspectors were able to identify other parcels from the same source and their recipients. A hostile administration could press for – in fact, Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance has already demanded – renewed enforcement of the not-dead-only-sleeping Comstock Act (1873), which criminalizes importing and mailing items “intended for producing abortion, or for any indecent or immoral use”.

There are so many other vital issues at stake in this election, but this one is personal. I spent my 20s traveling freely across the US to play folk music. Imagine that with today’s technology and states that see every woman of child-bearing age as a suspected criminal.

Illustrations: Murphy Brown (Candice Bergen) with baby son Avery (Haley Joel Osment).

Excluding the vote

“You have to register at home, where your parents live,” said the clerk at the Board of Elections office.

I was 18, and registering to vote for the first time. It was 1972.

“I don’t live there,” I said. “I live here.” “Here” was Ithaca, NY, a town that, I learned later, was hyper-conscious that college students – Cornell, Ithaca College – outnumbered local residents. They didn’t want us interlopers overwhelming their preferences.

We had a couple more back-and-forths like this, and then she picked up the phone and called the state authorities in Albany for an official ruling. I knew – or thought I knew – that the law was on my side.

It was. I registered. I voted.

In about a month, the UK will hold local elections. For the first time, anyone presenting themselves to vote at the polls will be required to show an ID card with a photograph. This is a policy purely imported from American Republicans, and it has no basis in necessity. The Electoral Commission, in recommending its introduction, admitted that the issue was public perception. The big issues with respect to elections are around dark money and the processes by which candidates are chosen.

For 49 days in the fall of 2022, Liz Truss served as prime minister; she was chosen by 81,326 Tory party members. Out of the country’s roughly 68 million people, only 141,725 (out of an estimated 172,000 party members) voted in that contest because, since the Conservatives had decisively won the 2019 election, they were just electing a new leader. Rishi Sunak was voted in by 202 MPs.

The government’s proximate excuse for bringing in voter ID is the fraud-riddled May 2014 mayoral election in the London borough of Tower Hamlets. Four local residents risked their own money to challenge the outcome, and in 2015 won an Election Court ruling voiding the election and barring the cheating winner from standing for public office for five years. Their complaints; included vote-rigging, false statements made by the winning candidates about his rival, bribery, and religious influence.

The High Court of Justice’s judgment in the case says: “…in practice, where electoral malpractice is established, particularly in the field of vote-rigging, it is very rare indeed to find members of the general public engaging in DIY vote-rigging on behalf of a candidate. Generally speaking, if there is widespread personation or false registration or misuse of postal votes, it will have been organised by the candidate or by someone who is, in law, his agent.”

Surely a more logical response to the Tower Hamlets case would be to make it easier – or at least quicker – for individuals to challenge election results and examine ways to ensure better behavior by *candidates*, not voters.

The judgment also notes that personation – assuming someone else’s identity in order to vote – was far more of a risk when fewer people qualified to vote. There followed a long period when it was too labor-intensive for too little reward; you need a lot of impersonators to change the result. In recent years, however, postal voting has made it viable again; in two wards of a 2008 Birmingham election Labour candidates committed 15 types of fraud involving postal ballots. The election in those two wards was re-run.

In his book Security Engineering, Cambridge professor Ross Anderson notes that the likelihood that expanded use of postal ballots would open the way for vote-buying an intimidation was predicted even as first Margaret Thatcher and then Tony Blair pursued the policy. But the main point is clear: the big problem is postal ballots, which you can’t solve by requiring voter ID from those who vote in person. It’s the wrong threat model. As Anderson observes, “…it’s typically the incumbent who tweaks the laws, buys the voting machines, and creates as many advantages for their own side, small and large, as the local political culture will tolerate.”

But voter ID is the policy that Boris Johnson used his 80-seat majority to push through in the form of the Elections Act (2022), which also weakens the independence of the Electoral Commission. As the bill went through Parliament, estimates were that about 3.5 million people lacked any qualifying form of ID, and that those 3.5 million skew heavily toward people who are not expected to vote Conservative.

This was all maddening enough – and then they published the list of acceptable forms of ID. Tl;dr: the list blatantly skews in favor of older and richer people, who are presumed to be more likely to vote Conservative. Passports, driving licenses, and travel passes 60+ for people are all acceptable. Student ID cards and travel cards and passesare not. The government says they are not secure enough, a bit like saying a lock on the door is pointless because it’s not a burglar alarm.

There is a scheme for issuing free voter cards; applications must be in by April 25. People can also vote by post or by proxy without ID. And there are third parties pushing paid ID cards, too. But what it comes down to is next month a bunch of people are going to go to vote and will be barred. And this from the same people who wanted online voting to “increase access”.

Illustrations: London polling station 2017 (by Mramoeba at Wikimedia.

Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. Follow on Mastodon or Twitter.