Tag: voting

Own goals

There’s no point in saying I told you so when the people you’re saying it to got the result they intended.

At the Guardian, Peter Walker reports the Electoral Commission’s finding that at least 14,000 people were turned away from polling stations in May’s local elections because they didn’t have the right ID as required under the new voter ID law. The Commission thinks that’s a huge underestimate; 4% of people who didn’t vote said it was because of voter ID – which Walker suggests could mean 400,000 were deterred. Three-quarters of those lacked the right documents; the rest opposed the policy. The demographics of this will be studied more closely in a report due in September, but early indications are that the policy disproportionately deterred people with disabilities, people from certain ethnic groups, and people who are unemployed.

The fact that the Conservatives, who brought in this policy, lost big time in those elections doesn’t change its wrongness. But it did lead the MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con-North East Somerset) to admit that this was an attempt to gerrymander the vote that backfired because older voters, who are more likely to vote Conservative, also disproportionately don’t have the necessary ID.

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One of the more obscure sub-industries is the business of supplying ad services to websites. One such little-known company is Criteo, which provides interactive banner ads that are generated based on the user’s browsing history and behavior using a technique known as “behavioral retargeting”. In 2018, Criteo was one of seven companies listed in a complaint Privacy International and noyb filed with three data protection authorities – the UK, Ireland, and France. In 2020, the French data protection authority, CNIL, launched an investigation.

This week, CNIL issued Criteo with a €40 million fine over failings in how it gathers user consent, a ruling noyb calls a major blow to Criteo’s business model.

It’s good to see the legal actions and fines beginning to reach down into adtech’s underbelly. It’s also worth noting that the CNIL was willing to fine a *French* company to this extent. It makes it harder for the US tech giants to claim that the fines they’re attracting are just anti-US protectionism.

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Also this week, the US Federal Trade Commission announced it’s suing Amazon, claiming the company enrolled millions of US consumers into its Prime subscription service through deceptive design and sabotaged their efforts to cancel.

“Amazon used manipulative, coercive, or deceptive user-interface designs known as “dark patterns” to trick consumers into enrolling in automatically-renewing Prime subscriptions,” the FTC writes.

I’m guessing this is one area where data protection laws have worked, In my UK-based ultra-brief Prime outings to watch the US Open tennis, canceling has taken at most two clicks. I don’t recognize the tortuous process Business Insider documented in 2022.

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It has long been no secret that the secret behind AI is human labor. In 2019, Mary L. Gray and Siddharth Suri documented this in their book Ghost Work. Platform workers label images and other content, annotate text, and solve CAPTCHAs to help train AI models.

At MIT Technology Review, Rhiannon Williams reports that platform workers are using ChatGPT to speed up their work and earn more. A team of researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology study (PDF)found that between 33% and 46% of the 44 workers they tested with a request to summarize 16 extracts from medical research papers used AI models to complete the task.

It’s hard not to feel a little gleeful that today’s “AI” is already eating itself via a closed feedback loop. It’s not good news for platform workers, though, because the most likely consequence will be increased monitoring to force them to show their work.

But this is yet another case in which computer people could have learned from their own history. In 2008, researchers at Google published a paper suggesting that Google search data could be used to spot flu outbreaks. Sick people searching for information about their symptoms could provide real-time warnings ten days earlier than the Centers for Disease Control could.

This actually worked, some of the time. However, as early as 2009, Kaiser Fung reported at Harvard Business Review in 2014, Google Flu Trends missed the swine flu pandemic; in 2012, researchers found that it had overestimated the prevalence of flu for 100 out of the previous 108 weeks. More data is not necessarily better, Fung concluded.

In 2013, as David Lazer and Ryan Kennedy reported for Wired in 2015 in discussing their investigation into the failure of this idea, GFT missed by 140% (without explaining what that means). Lazer and Kennedy find that Google’s algorithm was vulnerable to poisoning by unrelated seasonal search terms and search terms that were correlated purely by chance, and failed to take into account changing user behavior as when it introduced autosuggest and added health-related search terms. The “availability” cognitive bias also played a role: when flu is in the news, searches go up whether or not people are sick.

While the parallels aren’t exact, large language modelers could have drawn the lesson that users can poison their models. ChatGPT’s arrival for widespread use will inevitably thin out the proportion of text that is human-written – and taint the well from which LLMs drink. Everyone imagines the next generation’s increased power. But it’s equally possible that the next generation will degrade as the percentage of AI-generated data rises.

Illustrations: Drunk parrot seen in a Putney garden (by Simon Bisson).

Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. Follow on Mastodon or Twitter.

Excluding the vote

“You have to register at home, where your parents live,” said the clerk at the Board of Elections office.

I was 18, and registering to vote for the first time. It was 1972.

“I don’t live there,” I said. “I live here.” “Here” was Ithaca, NY, a town that, I learned later, was hyper-conscious that college students – Cornell, Ithaca College – outnumbered local residents. They didn’t want us interlopers overwhelming their preferences.

We had a couple more back-and-forths like this, and then she picked up the phone and called the state authorities in Albany for an official ruling. I knew – or thought I knew – that the law was on my side.

It was. I registered. I voted.

In about a month, the UK will hold local elections. For the first time, anyone presenting themselves to vote at the polls will be required to show an ID card with a photograph. This is a policy purely imported from American Republicans, and it has no basis in necessity. The Electoral Commission, in recommending its introduction, admitted that the issue was public perception. The big issues with respect to elections are around dark money and the processes by which candidates are chosen.

For 49 days in the fall of 2022, Liz Truss served as prime minister; she was chosen by 81,326 Tory party members. Out of the country’s roughly 68 million people, only 141,725 (out of an estimated 172,000 party members) voted in that contest because, since the Conservatives had decisively won the 2019 election, they were just electing a new leader. Rishi Sunak was voted in by 202 MPs.

The government’s proximate excuse for bringing in voter ID is the fraud-riddled May 2014 mayoral election in the London borough of Tower Hamlets. Four local residents risked their own money to challenge the outcome, and in 2015 won an Election Court ruling voiding the election and barring the cheating winner from standing for public office for five years. Their complaints; included vote-rigging, false statements made by the winning candidates about his rival, bribery, and religious influence.

The High Court of Justice’s judgment in the case says: “…in practice, where electoral malpractice is established, particularly in the field of vote-rigging, it is very rare indeed to find members of the general public engaging in DIY vote-rigging on behalf of a candidate. Generally speaking, if there is widespread personation or false registration or misuse of postal votes, it will have been organised by the candidate or by someone who is, in law, his agent.”

Surely a more logical response to the Tower Hamlets case would be to make it easier – or at least quicker – for individuals to challenge election results and examine ways to ensure better behavior by *candidates*, not voters.

The judgment also notes that personation – assuming someone else’s identity in order to vote – was far more of a risk when fewer people qualified to vote. There followed a long period when it was too labor-intensive for too little reward; you need a lot of impersonators to change the result. In recent years, however, postal voting has made it viable again; in two wards of a 2008 Birmingham election Labour candidates committed 15 types of fraud involving postal ballots. The election in those two wards was re-run.

In his book Security Engineering, Cambridge professor Ross Anderson notes that the likelihood that expanded use of postal ballots would open the way for vote-buying an intimidation was predicted even as first Margaret Thatcher and then Tony Blair pursued the policy. But the main point is clear: the big problem is postal ballots, which you can’t solve by requiring voter ID from those who vote in person. It’s the wrong threat model. As Anderson observes, “…it’s typically the incumbent who tweaks the laws, buys the voting machines, and creates as many advantages for their own side, small and large, as the local political culture will tolerate.”

But voter ID is the policy that Boris Johnson used his 80-seat majority to push through in the form of the Elections Act (2022), which also weakens the independence of the Electoral Commission. As the bill went through Parliament, estimates were that about 3.5 million people lacked any qualifying form of ID, and that those 3.5 million skew heavily toward people who are not expected to vote Conservative.

This was all maddening enough – and then they published the list of acceptable forms of ID. Tl;dr: the list blatantly skews in favor of older and richer people, who are presumed to be more likely to vote Conservative. Passports, driving licenses, and travel passes 60+ for people are all acceptable. Student ID cards and travel cards and passesare not. The government says they are not secure enough, a bit like saying a lock on the door is pointless because it’s not a burglar alarm.

There is a scheme for issuing free voter cards; applications must be in by April 25. People can also vote by post or by proxy without ID. And there are third parties pushing paid ID cards, too. But what it comes down to is next month a bunch of people are going to go to vote and will be barred. And this from the same people who wanted online voting to “increase access”.

Illustrations: London polling station 2017 (by Mramoeba at Wikimedia.

Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. Follow on Mastodon or Twitter.