ID is football

On Wednesday, Australia woke up to its new social media ban for under-16s. As Ange Lavoipierre explains at ABC News, the ban isn’t total. Under-16s are barred from owning their own accounts on a a list of big platforms – Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Twitch, YouTube, TikTok, X, Reddit, Kick, and Snapchat – but not barred from *using* those platforms. So, inevitably, there are already reports of errors and kids figuring out how to bypass the rules in order to stay in touch with their friends. The Washington Post’s report contains this contradiction: “Numerous recent polls indicate that a solid majority of Australians support the ban, but that young respondents largely don’t plan to comply.”

Helpfully, ABC News reported a couple of months ago that researchers, led by the UK’s Age Check Certification Scheme, have tested age assurance vendors, and found that “Old man” masks and other cheap party costumes apparently work to fool age estimation algorithms).

Edge cases are appearing, such as the country’s teen Olympians – skateboarders and triathletes – for whom the ban disrupts years of building fan communities, potentially also disrupting some of their funding.

Meanwhile, the BBC reports that a pair of 15-year-olds, backed by the Digital Freedom Project, are challenging the ban in court. The Josh Taylor reports at the Guardian that Reddit is also suing.

At Nature, Rachel Fieldhouse and Mohana Basu write that the ban’s wider effects will be assessed by scientists independently. This is good; defining “success” solely by the numbers of blocks bypassed substitutes an easy measure for the long-term impacts, which are diffuse, difficult to measure, and subject to many confounding variables.

But we know this: the ratchet effect applies. I first encountered it in the context of alternative medicine. Chronic illnesses have cycles; they improve, plateau, get worse. Apply a harmless remedy. If the patient gets better, the remedy is working. If it stays the same, the remedy has halted the decline. If it gets worse, the remedy came too late. In all cases, the answer is more of the remedy. So with online safety. In child safety, the answer is always that more restrictions are needed. In the UK, where the Online Safety Act has been in force for mere months, three members of the House of Lords have already proposed a similar ban as an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill.

***

Keir Starmer’s vague plan for a mandatory digital ID is back. This week saw a Westminster Hall debate, as required after nearly three million people signed an online petition opposing it.

At Computer Weekly, Liz Evenstead reports that MPs across all parties attacked the plan, making familiar points: the target such a scheme could create for criminals, the change it would bring to the relationship between citizens and the state, and the potential threat to civil liberties. They also attacked its absence from Labour’s election manifesto; last month, Fiona Brown reported at The National that on Times Radio UK head Louis Mosley said that Palantir would not bid on contracts for the digital ID because it hasn’t had “a clear, resounding ballot box”.

Also a potential issue is cost, which the Office of Budget Responsibility recently estimated at £1.8 billion. According to SA Mathieson at The Register, the government has rejected the figure but declined to provide an alternative estimate until its soon-to-be-launched consultation has been completed.

Also hovering in the background, weirdly ignored, is the digital identity and attributes trust framework, which has been in progress for the last several years at least.

Beyond that, we still have no real details. For this reason, in a panel I moderated at this week’s UK Internet Governance Forum, I asked panelists – Dave Birch, Karla Prudencio, and Mirca Madianou to try to produce some principles for what digital ID should and should not be. Birch in particular has often said he thinks Britain as a sovereign state in the 21st century sorely needs a digital identity infrastructure – by which he *doesn’t* mean anything like the traditional “ID card” so many are talking about. As we all agree, technology has changed a lot since 2005, when this was last attempted. Since then: blockchain, smartphones, social media, machine learning, generative. So we agree that far: anything the government proposes really should look very different than the last attempt, in 2005.

Here are the principles our discussion came up with:
– Design for edge cases, as a system that works for them will work for everyone.
– Design for plural identities.
– Don’t design the system as a hostile environment.
– Don’t create a target for hackers.
– Understand the real purpose .
– Identification is not authentication.
– Understand public-private partnerships as three-way relationships with users.
– Design to build public trust.

And one last thought:
– Sometimes, ID is football.

That last is from Madianou’s field work in Karen refugee camps along the border between Thailand and Myanmar. One teenaged boy really wanted an ID card so he could leave the camp and return safely without being arrested in order to go play football in a nearby village. It’s a reminder: identification can mean many different things in different situations.

Illustrations: The Mae La refugee camp in Thailand (by Tayzar44 at Wikimedia.

Also this week: TechGrumps 3.34 – ChatGPT is not my wingman.

Wendy M. Grossman is an award-winning journalist. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. She is a contributing editor for the Plutopia News Network podcast. Follow on Mastodon or Bluesky.

The absurdity card

Fifteen years ago, a new incoming government swept away a policy its immediate predecessors had been pushing since shortly after the 2001 9/11 attacks: identity cards. That incoming government was led by David Cameron’s conservatives, in tandem with Nick Clegg’s liberal democrats. The outgoing government was Tony Blair’s. When Keir Starmer’s reinvented Labour party swept the 2024 polls, probably few of us expected he would adopt Blair’s old policies so soon.

But here we are: today’s papers announce Starmer’s plan for mandatory “digital ID”.

Fifteen years is an unusually long time between ID card proposals in Britain. Since they were scrapped at the end of World War II, there has usually been a new proposal about every five years. In 2002, at a Scrambling for Safety event held by the Foundation for Information Policy Research and Privacy International, former minister Peter Lilley observed that during his time in Margaret Thatcher’s government ID card proposals were brought to cabinet every time there was a new minister for IT. Such proposals were always accompanied with a request for suggestions how it could be used. A solution looking for a problem.

In a 2005 paper I wrote for the University of Edinburgh’s SCRIPT-ED journal, I found evidence to support that view: ID card proposals are always framed around current obsessions. In 1993, it was going to combat fraud, illegal immigration, and terrorism. In 1995 it was supposed to cut crime (at that time, Blair argued expanding policing would be a better investment). In 1989, it was ensuring safety at football grounds following the Hillsborough disaster. The 2001-2010 cycle began with combating terrorism, benefit fraud, and convenience. Today, it’s illegal immigration and illegal working.

A report produced by the LSE in 2005 laid out the concerns. It has dated little, despite preceding smartphones, apps, covid passes, and live facial recognition. Although the cost of data storage has continued to plummet, it’s also worth paying attention to the chapter on costs, which the report estimated at roughly £11 billion.

As I said at the time, the “ID card”, along with the 51 pieces of personal information it was intended to store, was a decoy. The real goal was the databases. It was obvious even then that soon real time online biometric checking would be a reality. Why bother making a card mandatory when police could simply demand and match a biometric?

We’re going to hear a lot of “Well, it works in Estonia”. *A* digital ID works in Estonia – for a population of 1.3 million who regained independence in 1991. Britain has a population of 68.3 million, a complex, interdependent mass of legacy systems, and a terrible record of failed IT projects.

We’re also going to hear a lot of “people have moved on from the debates of the past”, code for “people like ID cards now” – see for example former Conservative leader William Hague. Governments have always claimed that ID cards poll well but always come up against the fact that people support the *goals*, but never like the thing when they see the detail. So it will probably prove now. Twelve years ago, I think they might have gotten away with that claim – smartphones had exploded, social media was at its height, and younger people thought everything should be digital (including voting). But the last dozen years began with Snowden‘s revelations, and continued with the Cambridge Analytica Scandal, ransomware, expanding acres of data breaches, policing scandals, the Horizon / Post Office disaster, and wider understanding of accelerating passive surveillance by both governments and massive companies. I don’t think acceptance of digital ID is a slam-dunk. I think the people who have failed to move on are the people who were promoting ID cards in 2002, when they had cross-party support, and are doing it again now.

So, to this new-old proposal. According to The Times, there will be a central database of everyone who has the right to work. Workers must show their digital ID when they start a new job to prove their employment is legal. They already have to show one of a variety of physical ID documents, but “there are concerns some of these can be faked”. I can think of a lot cheaper and less invasive solution for that. The BBC last night said checks for the right to live here would also be applied to anyone renting a home. In the Guardian, Starmer is quoted calling the card “an enormous opportunity” and saying the card will offer citizens “countless benefits” in streamlining access to key services, echoes of 2002’s “entitlement card”. I think it was on the BBC’s Newsnight that I heard someone note the absurdity of making it easier to prove your entitlement to services that no longer exist because of cuts.

So keep your eye on the database. Keep your eye on which department leads. Immigration suggests the Home Office, whose desires have little in common with the need of ordinary citizens’ daily lives. Beware knock-on effects. Think “poll tax”. And persistently ask: what problem do we have for which a digital ID is the right, the proportionate, the *necessary* solution?

There will be detailed proposals, consultations, and draft legislation, so more to come. As an activist friend says, “Nothing ever stays won.”

Illustrations: British National Identity document circa 1949 (via Wikimedia.)

Wendy M. Grossman is an award-winning journalist. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. She is a contributing editor for the Plutopia News Network podcast. Follow on Mastodon or Bluesky.

Twenty comedians walk into a bar…

The Internet was, famously, created to withstand a bomb outage. In 1998 Matt Blaze and Steve Bellovin said it, in 2002 it was still true, and it remains true today, after 50 years of development: there are more efficient ways to kill the Internet than dropping a bomb.

Take today. The cybersecurity company Crowdstrike pushed out a buggy update, and half the world is down. Airports, businesses, the NHS appointment booking system, supermarkets, the UK’s train companies, retailers…all showing the Blue Screen of Death. Can we say “central points of failure”? Because there are two: Crowdstrike, whose cybersecurity is widespead, and Microsoft, whose Windows operating system is everywhere.

Note this hasn’t killed the *Internet*. It’s temporarily killed many systems *connected to* the Internet. But if you’re stuck in an airport where nothing’s working and confronted with a sign that says “Cash only” when you only have cards…well, at least you can go online to read the news.

The fix will be slow, because it involves starting the computer in safe mode and manually deleting files. Like Y2K remediation, one computer at a time.

***

Speaking of things that don’t work, three bits from the generative AI bubble. First, last week Goldman Sachs issued a scathing report on generative AI that concluded it is unlikely to ever repay the trillion-odd dollars companies are spending on it, while its energy demands could outstrip available supply. Conclusion: generative AI is a bubble that could nonetheless take a long time to burst.

Second, at 404 Media Emanuel Weiburg reads a report from the Tony Blair Institute that estimates that 40% of tasks performed by public sector workers could be partially automated. Blair himself compares generative AI to the industrial revolution. This comparison is more accurate than he may realize, since the industrial revolution brought climate change, and generative AI pours accelerant on it.

TBI’s estimate conflicts with that provided to Goldman by MIT economist Daron Acemoglu, who believes that AI will impact at most 4.6% of tasks in the next ten years. The source of TBI’s estimate? ChatGPT itself. It’s learned self-promotion from parsing our output?

Finally, in a study presented at ACM FAccT, four DeepMind researchers interviewed 20 comedians who do live shows and use AI to participate in workshops using large language models to help write jokes. “Most participants felt the LLMs did not succeed as a creativity support tool, by producing bland and biased comedy tropes, akin to ‘cruise ship comedy material from the 1950s, but a bit less racist’.” Last year, Julie Seabaugh at the LA Times interviewed 13 professional comedians and got similar responses. Ahmed Ahmed compared AI-generated comedy to eating processed foods and, crucially, it “lacks timing”.

***

Blair, who spent his 1997-2007 premiership pushing ID cards into law, has also been trying to revive this longheld obsession. Two days after Keir Starmer took office, Blair published a letter in the Sunday Times calling for its return. As has been true throughout the history of ID cards (PDF), every new revival presents it as a solution to a different problem. Blair’s 2024 reason is to control immigration (and keep the far-right Reform party at bay). Previously: prevent benefit fraud, combat terorism, streamline access to health, education, and other government services (“the entitlement card”), prevent health tourism.

Starmer promptly shot Blair down: “not part of the government’s plans”. This week Alan West, a home office minister 2007-2010 under Gordon Brown, followed up with a letter to the Guardian calling for ID cards because they would “enhance national security in the areas of terrorism, immigration and policing; facilitate access to online government services for the less well-off; help to stop identity theft; and facilitate international travel”.

Neither Blair (born 1953) nor West (born 1948) seems to realize how old and out of touch they sound. Even back then, the “card” was an obvious decoy. Given pervasive online access, a handheld reader, and the database, anyone’s identity could be checked anywhere at any time with no “card” required.

To sound modern they should call for institutionalizing live facial recognition, which is *already happening* by police fiat. Or sprinkled AI bubble on their ID database.

Databases and giant IT projects that failed – like the Post Office scandal – that was the 1990s way! We’ve moved on, even if they haven’t.

***

If you are not a deposed Conservative, Britain this week is like waking up sequentially from a series of nightmares. Yesterday, Keir Starmer definitively ruled out leaving the European Convention on Human Rights – Starmer’s background as a human rights lawyer to the fore. It’s a relief to hear after 14 years of Tory ministers – David Cameron,, Boris Johnson, Suella Braverman, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak – whining that human rights law gets in the way of their heart’s desires. Like: building a DNA database, deporting refugees or sending them to Rwanda, a plan to turn back migrants in boats at sea.

Principles have to be supported in law; under the last government’s Public Order Act 2023 curbing “disruptive protest”, yesterday five Just Stop Oil protesters were jailed for four and five years. Still, for that brief moment it was all The Brotherhood of Man.

Illustrations: Windows’ Blue Screen of Death (via Wikimedia).

Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. She is a contributing editor for the Plutopia News Network podcast. Follow on Mastodon.