net.wars

Sovereign immunity

At the Gikii conference in 2018, a speaker told us of her disquiet after receiving a warning from Tumblr that she had replied to several messages posted there by a Russian bot. After inspecting the relevant thread, her conclusion was that this bot’s postings were designed to increase the existing divisions within her community. There would, she warned, be a lot more of this.

We’ve seen confirming evidence over the years since. This week provided even more when X turned on location identification for all accounts, whether they wanted it or not. The result has been, as Jason Koebler writes at 404 Media, to expose the true locations of accounts purporting to be American, posting on political matters. A large portion of the accounts behind viral posts designed to exacerbate tensions are being run by people in countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Cambodia, and Russia, among others, with generative AI acting as an accelerant.

Unlike the speaker we began with, in his analysis, Koebler finds that the intention behind most of this is not to stir up divisions but simply to make money from an automated ecosystem that makes it easy. The US is the main target simply because it’s the most lucrative market. He also points out that while X’s new feature has led people to talk about it, the similar feature that has long existed on Facebook and YouTube has never led to change because, he writes, “social media companies do not give a fuck about this”. Cue the Upton Sinclair quote: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his Salary depends upon his not understanding it”

The incident reminded that this type of fraud in general seems to be endemic, especially in the online advertising ecosystem. In March, Portsmouth senior lecturer Karen Middleton submitted evidence (PDF) to a UK Parliamentary Select Committee Inquiry arguing that the advertising ecosystem urgently needs regulatory attention as a threat to information integrity. At the Financial Times, Martin Wolf thinks that users should be able to sue the platforms for reimbursement when they are tricked by fraudulent ads – a model that might work for fraudulent ads that cause quantifiable harm but not for those that cause wider, less tangible, social harm. Wolf cites a Reuters report from Jeff Horwitz, who analyzes internal Facebook documents to find that the company itself expected 10% of its 2024 revenues – $16 billion – to come from ads for scams and banned goods.

Search Engine Land, citing Juniper Research, estimated in 2023 that $84 billion in advertising spend would be lost to ad fraud that year, and predicted a rise to $172 billion by 2028. Spider Labs estimates 2024 losses at over $37.7 billion, based on traffic data it’s analyzed through its fraud prevention tool, and 2025 losses at $41.4 billion. For context, DataReportal puts global online ad revenue at close to $790.3 billion in 2024. Also for comparison, Adblock Tester estimated last week that ad blockers cut publishers’ advertising revenues on average by 25% in 2023, costing them up to $50 billion a year.

If Koebler is correct in his assessment, until or unless advertisers rebel the incentives are misplaced and change will not happen.

***

Enforcement of the Online Safety Act has continued to develop since it came into force in July. This week, Substack became the latest to announce it would implement age verification for whatever content it deems to be potentially harmful. Paid subscribers are exempt on the basis that they have signed up with credit cards, which are unavailable in the UK to those under 18.

In October, we noted the arrival of a lawsuit against Ofcom brought in US courts by 4Chan and Kiwi Farms. The lawyer’s name, Preston Byrne, sounded familiar; I now remember he talked bitcoin at the 2015 Tomorrow’s Transaction Forum.

James Titcomb writes at the Daily Telegraph that Ofcom’s lawyers have told the US court that it is a public regulatory authority and therefore has “sovereign immunity”. The lawsuit contends that Ofcom is run as a “commercial enterprise” and therefore doesn’t get to claim sovereign immunity. Plus: the First Amendment.

Meanwhile, with age verification spreading to Australia and the EU, on X Byrne is advocating that US states enact foreign censorship shield laws. One state – Wyoming – has already introduced one. The draft GRANITE Act was filed on November 19. Among other provisions, the law would permit US citizens who have been threatened with fines to demand three times the amount in damages – potentially billions for a company like Meta, which can be fined up to 10% of global revenue under various UK and EU laws. That clause would have to pass the US Congress. In the current mood, it might; in July in a report the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee called the EU’s Digital Services Act a foreign censorship threat.

It’s hard to know how – or when – this will end. In 1990s debates, many imagined that the competition to enforce national standards for speech across the world would lead either to unrestricted free speech or to a “least common denominator” regime in which the most restrictive laws applied everywhere. Byrne’s battle isn’t about that; it’s about who gets to decide.

Illustrations: A wild turkey strutting (by Frank Schulenberg at Wikimedia). Happy Thanksgiving!

Also this week:
At Plutopia, we interview Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel at ACLU.

Wendy M. Grossman is an award-winning journalist. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. She is a contributing editor for the Plutopia News Network podcast. Follow on Mastodon or Bluesky.

Mean time between failures

Normal people should not know names like “US-East-1”, someone said this week on Mastodon, or more or less. “US-East-1” is the section of Amazon Web Services that went out last month to widely disruptive effect. What this social media poster was getting at, while contemplating this week’s Cloudflare outage, is the fact that the series of recent Internet-related outages has made network nodes that were previously only known to technical specialists into household names.

For the history-minded, there was a moment like this in 1988, when a badly-written worm put the Internet on newspapers’ front pages for the first time. The Internet was then so little known that every story had to explain what it was – primarily, then, a network connecting government, academic, and corporate scientific research institutions. Now, stories are explaining network architecture. I guess that’s progress?

Much less detailed knowledge was needed to understand what happened on Tuesday, when Cloudflare went down, taking with it access to Spotify, Uber, Grindr, Ikea, Microsoft CoPilot, Politico, and even, in London, its VPN service (says Wikipedia). Cloudflare offers content delivery and protection against distributed denial of service attacks, and as such it interpolates itself into all sorts of Internet interactions. I often see it demanding action to prove I’m not a robot; in that mode it’s hard to miss. That said, many sites really do need the protection it offers against large-scale attacks. Attacks at scale require defense at scale.

Ironically, one of the sites lost in the Cloudflare outage was DownDetector, a site that helps you know if the site you can’t reach is down for everyone or just you, one of several such debugging tools for figuring out who needs to fix what.

So, Cloudflare was Tuesday. Amazon’s outage was just about a month ago, on October 20. Microsoft Azure, another DNS error, was just a week later. All three of these had effects across large parts of the network.

Is this a trend or just a random coincidental cluster in a sea of possibilities?

One thing that’s dispiriting about these outages is that so often the causes are traceable to issues that have been well-understood for years. With Amazon it was a DNS error. Microsoft also had a DNS issue “following an inadvertent configuration change”. Cloudflare’s issue may have been less predictable; The Verge reports its problem was a software crash caused by a “feature file” used by its bot management system abruptly doubling in size, taking it above the size the software was designed to handle.

Also at The Verge, Emma Roth thinks it’s enough of a trend that website owners need to start thinking about backup – that is, failover – plans. Correctly, she says the widespread impact of these outages shows how concentrated infrastructure service provision has become. She cites Signal CEO Meredith Whittaker: the encrypted messaging service can’t find an alternative to using one of the three or four major cloud providers.

At Krebs on Security, Brian Krebs warns sites that managed to pivot their domains away from Cloudflare to keep themselves available during the outage need to examine their logs for signs of the attacks Cloudflare normally protects them from and put effort into fixing the common vulnerabilities they find. And then also: consider spreading the load so there isn’t a single point of failure. As I understand it, Netflix did this after the 2017 AWS outage.

For any single one of these giant providers, significant outages are not common. This was, Jon Brodin says at Ars Technica, Cloudflare’s worst outage since 2019. That one was due to a badly written firewall rule. But increasing size also brings increasing complexity, and, as these outages have also shown, even the largest network can be disrupted at scale by a very small mistake.

Elsewhere, a software engineer friend and I have been talking about “mean time between failures”, a measure normally applied to hard drives, servers, or other components. There, it’s much more easily measured – run a load of drives, time when they fail, take an average… With the Internet, so much depends on your individual setup. But beyond that: what counts as failure? My friend suggested setting thresholds based on impact: number of people, length of time, extent of cascading failures. Being able to quantify outages might help get a better sense of whether it’s a trend or a random cluster. The bottom line, though, is clear already: increasing centralization means that when outages occur they are further-reaching and disruptive in unpredictable ways. This trend can only continue, even if the outages themselves become rarer.

Most of us have no control over the infrastructure decisions sites and services make, or even any real way to know what they are. We can counter this to some extent by diversifying our own dependencies.

In the first decade or two of the Internet, we could always revert to older ways of doing things. Increasingly, this is impossible because either those older methods have been turned off or because technology has taken us places where the old ways didn’t go. We need to focus a lot more on making the new systems robust, or face a future as hostages.

Illustrations: Traffic jam in New York’s Herald Square, 1973 (via Wikimedia).

Also this week
– At the Plutopia podcast, we interview Jennifer Granick, the Surveillance and Cybersecurity counsel at the ACLU about the expansion of government and corporate surveillance and the increasing threat to civil liberties.
– At Skeptical Inquirer, I interview juggling mathematician Colin Wright about spreading enthusiasm for mathematics.

Simplification

We were warned this was coming at this year’s Computers, Privacy, and Data Protection, and now it’s really here. The data protection NGO Noyb reports that a leaked internal draft (PDF) of the European Commission’s Digital Omnibus threatens to undermine the architecture the EU has been building around data protection, AI, cybersecurity, and privacy generally. At The Register, Connor Jones summarizes the changes; Noyb has detail.

The EU’s workings are, as always, somewhat inscrutable to outsiders. Noyb explains that the omnibus tool is intended to allow multiple laws to be updated simultaneously to “improve the quality of the law and streamline paperwork obligations”. In this case, Noyb argues that the European Commission is abusing this option to fast-track far more substantial and contentious changes that should be subject to impact assessments and feedback from other EU institutions, as well as legal services.

If the move succeeds – the final draft will be presented on November 19 – Noyb believes it could remove fundamental rights to privacy and data protection that Europeans have been building for more than 30 years. Noyb, European Digital Rights, and the Irish Council for Civil Liberties have sent an open letter of objection to the Commission. The basic argument: this isn’t “simplification” but deregulation. The package would still have to be accepted by the European Parliament and a majority of EU member states.

As far as I can recall, business has never much liked data protection. In the early 1990s, when the first laws were being written, I remember being told data protection was a “tax on small business”. Privacy advocates instead see data protection as a way of redressing the power imbalance between large organizations and individuals.

By 1998, when data protection law was implemented in all EU member states, US companies were publicly insisting that the US didn’t need a privacy law in order to be in compliance. Companies could use corporate policies and sectoral laws to provide a “layered approach” that would be just as protective. When I wrote about this for Scientific American in 1999, privacy advocates in the UK predicted a trade war over this, calling it a failure to understand that you can’t cut a deal with a fundamental right – like the First Amendment.

In early 2013, it looked entirely possible that the period of negotiations over data protection reform would end with rollback. GDPR was the focus of intense lobbying efforts. There were, literally, 4,000 proposed amendments, so many that I recall being shown software written to manage and understand them all.

And then…Snowden. His revelations of government spying shifted the mood noticeably, and, under his shadow, when GDPR was finally adopted in 2016 and came into force in 2018, it expanded citizens’ rights and increased penalties for non-compliance. Since then, other countries around the world have used GDPR as a model, including China and several US states.

Those few states aside, at the US federal level data protection law has never been popular, and the pile of law growing around it – the Digital Services Act, the Digital Markets Act, and the AI Act – is particularly unwelcome to the current administration, which sees it as a deliberate attack on US technology companies.

In the UK the in-progress Data (Use and Access) Act, which passed in June, also weakened some data protection provisions. It will be implemented over the year to June 2026.

At its blog, the Open Rights Group argues that some aspects of the DUAA rest on the claim that innovation, economic growth, and public security are harmed by data protection law, a dubious premise.

Until this leak, it seemed possible that the DUAA would break Britain’s adequacy decision and remove the UK from the list of countries to which the EU allows data transfers. The rule is that to qualify a country must have legal protections equivalent to those of the EU. It would be the wrong way round if instead of the UK enhancing its law to match the EU, the EU weakened its law to match the UK.

There’s a whole secondary issue here, which is that a law is only useful if it’s enforced. Noyb actively brings legal cases to force enforcement in the EU. In the UK, privacy advocates, like ORG, have long complained that the Information Commissioner’s Office is increasingly quiescent.

Many of the EU’s changes appear to be aimed at making it easier for AI companies to exploit personal data to develop models. It’s hard to know where that will end, given that every company is sprinkling “AI” over itself in order to sound exciting and new (until the next thing comes along), if this thing comes into force you have to think data protection law will increasingly only apply to small businesses running older technology that can’t be massaged to qualify for exemption..

I blame this willingness to undermine fundamental rights at least partly on the fantasy of the “AI race”. This is nation-state-level FOMO. What race? What’s the end point? What does it mean to “win”? Why the AI race, and not the net-zero race, the renewables race, or the sustainability race? All of those would produce tangible benefits and solve known problems of long standing and existential impact.

Illustrations: A drunk parrot in a Putney garden (photo by Simon Bisson; used by permission).

The panopticon in your home

In a series of stories, Lisa O’Carroll at the Guardian finds that His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs has had its hand in the cookie jar of airline passenger records. In hot pursuit of its goal of finding £350 million in benefit fraud, it’s been scouring these records to find people who have left the country for more than a month and not returned, so are no longer eligible.

In one case, a family was turned away at the gate when one of the children had an epileptic seizure; their child benefit was stopped because they had “emigrated” though they’d never left. A similar accusation was leveled at a women who booked a flight to Oslo even though she never checked in or flew.

These families can provide documentation proving they remained in the UK, but as one points out, the onus is on them to clean up an error they didn’t make. There are many others. Many simply traveled and returned by different routes. As of November 1, HMRC had reinstated 1,979 of the families affected but sticks to its belief that the rest have been correctly identified. HMRC also says it will check its PAYE records first for evidence someone is still here and working. This would help, but it’s not the only issue.

It’s unclear whether HMRC has the right to use this data in this way. The Guardian reports that the Information Commissioner’s Office, the data protection authority, has contacted HMRC to ask questions.

For privacy advocates, the case is disturbing. It is a clear example of the way data can mislead when it’s moved to a new context. For the people involved, it’s a hostage situation: there is no choice about providing the data siphoned from airlines to Home Office nor the financial information held by HMRC and no control over what happens next.

The essayist and former software engineer Ellen Ullman warned 20 years ago that she had never seen an owner of multiple databases who didn’t want to link them together. So this sort of “sharing” is happening all over the place.

In the US, Pro Publica reported this week that individual states have begun using a system provided by the Department of Homeland Security to check their voter rolls for non-citizens that has incorporated information from the Social Security Administration. Here again, data collected by one agency for one purpose is being shared with another for an entirely different one.

In both cases, data is being used for a purpose that wasn’t envisioned when it was collected. An airline collecting booking data isn’t checking it for errors or omissions that might cost a passenger their benefits. Similarly, the Social Security Administration isn’t normally concerned with whether you’re a citizen for voting purposes, just whether you qualify for one or another program – as it should be. Both changes of use fail to recognize the change in the impact of errors that goes along with them, especially at national scale.

I assume that in this age of AI-for-government-efficiency the goal for the future is to automate these systems even further while pulling in more sources of data.

Privacy advocates are used to encountering pushback that takes this form: “They know everything about me anyway.” I would dispute that. “They” certainly *can* collect a lot of uncorrelated data points about you if “they” aggregate the many available sources of data. But until recently, doing that was effortful enough that it didn’t happen unless you were suspected of something. Now, we’re talking sharing data and mining at scale as a matter of routine.

***

One of the most important lessons learned from 14 years of We, Robot conferences is that when someone shows a video clip of a robot doing something one should always ask how much it’s been speeded up.

This probably matters less in a home robot doing chores, as long as you don’t have to supervise. Leave a robot to fold laundry, and it can’t possibly matter if it takes all night.

From reports by Erik Kain at Forbes and Nilesh Christopher at the LA Times, it appears that 1X’s new Neo robot is indeed slow, even in its promotional video clips. The company says it has layers of security to prevent it from turning “murderous”, which seems an absurd bit of customer reassurance. However, 1X also calls it “lightweight”. The Neo is five foot six and weighs 66 pounds (30 kilos), which seems quite enough to hurt someone if it falls on them, even with padding. Granting the contributory design issues, Lime bikes weigh 50 pounds and break people’s legs. 1X’s website shows the Neo hugged by an avuncular taller man; imagine it instead with a five-foot 90-year-old woman.

Can we ask about hacking risks? And what happens if, like so many others, 1X shuts it down?

More incredibly, in buying one you must agree to allow a remote human operatorto drive the robot, along the way peering into your home. This is close to the original design of the panopticon, which chilled because those under surveillance never know whether they are being watched or not.

And it can be yours for the low, low price of $20,000 or $500 a month.

Illustrations: Jeremy Bentham’s original drawing of his design for the panopticon (via Wikimedia).

Also this week:
The Plutopia podcast interviews Sophie Nightingale on her research into deepfakes and the future of disinformation.
TechGrumps 3.33 podcast, The Final Step is Removing the Consumer, discusses AI web brorwsers, the Amazon outage, Python Foundation and DEI.